-- Previously, September Real Retail Sales declined by 1.1% (-1.1%) month-to-month and by 0.7% (-0.7%) year-to-year, pulling Third-Quarter 2022 activity into an annualized quarterly contraction of 3.8% (-3.8%), with year to-year gain of 0.6%. Contracting month-to-month for the fourth month in the last five months, and year-to-year for the second month of the last five months, September 2022 Real Retail Sales declined by 1.1% (-1.1%) in the month and by 0.7% (-0.7%) from September 2021. In the third straight month of both headline annual CPI and PPI inflation temporarily depressed by weaker gasoline prices, the aggregate unadjusted year-to-year, annual September 2022 Producer Price Index (PPI) was 8.55%, down from 8.66% in August, while the most meaningful Goods Sector annual inflation declined in parallel to 11.31% from 12.25% in August. That weakness had been broad-based across backward and forward-looking sub-balances that fed into the headline confidence indicator. The minutes of the Committee meeting ending on 3 August will be published on 4 August 2022. For all the broader Money Supply measures in September 2022, dollar levels and growth levels against respective Pre-Pandemic Troughs held close to but off the historic peaks seen in August 2022. By clicking Accept recommended settings on this banner, you accept our use of optional cookies. Payroll Employment rose by 261,000 in the month, within the expected range, having recovered its Pre-Pandemic Peak in August, gaining against, but still shy by about 5.6 million jobs of what would have been the normal level of payroll activity expected, at present, without the Pandemic. Gasoline prices, however, are rising anew, in October 2022, already above September levels. The core inflation index, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products components, was 6.9% (6.5% in the previous month), the highest rate since February 1994. ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [October 13], GDP [October 27], Unemployment [November 4], Money Supply [October 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [October 31]. GfK consumer confidence had fallen further in May, to below the previous low point for the series in mid-2008. Although CPI inflation in April had been close to the MPCs expectations at the time of the May Report, inflationary pressures appeared to have broadened across the major components of consumer prices, including in the services sector, and other indicators of cost and price pressures had remained robust. The stock of vacancies had risen further, to 1.3 million in the three months to May. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, July 2022 [1982-84=100, unless otherwise noted] Expenditure category Relative importance Jun. -- ShadowStats regularly follows and analyzes the Cass Freight Index as a highest-quality coincident and leading indicator of underlying economic reality. - With ongoing inflationary implications, in context of upside benchmark revisions to the current more-liquid Money Supply data, September 2022 Money Supply Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits) notched minimally lower, off its new 123.3% [previously 122.1%] August record-high gain, holding at 121.6% above its Pre-Pandemic Peak, still reflecting a 52-year peak in extreme flight to liquidity -- no inflation relief is in sight, so far. The economy had recently been subject to a succession of very large shocks. Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed, and they likely will expand into 2023, irrespective of pronounced FOMC tightening. As demonstrated in recent decades, FOMC stimulus likely will remain in play, as targeted by the FOMC, primarily, in order to prevent a collapse in the Banking System, which owns and controls the Federal Reserve. At present, full economic recovery is not likely until 2023 or after. With sentiment sitting only 10 index points above the all-time low reached in June. Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for details. P E N D I N G .. P O S T I N G S .. [Updated November 7th] - Posting of ShadowStats Commentary No. Intelligence from the Banks Agents contacts suggested that hiring intentions had continued to be positive and that recruitment difficulties had remained severe. FLASH (October 14th): Consistent with slowing/ contracting Consumer activity, September 2022 inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales completed what had been an unfolding Third-Quarter 2022 quarter-to-quarter drop; showing an annualized 3.8% (-3.8%) quarterly contraction, following a 0.4% annualized gain in Second-Quarter 2022, with a Third-Quarter 2022 year-to-year gain of 0.6%, following a Second-Quarter 2022 decline of 0.1% (-0.1%). 1461. Designed to reverse the inflation-reduction methodological gimmicks of the early 1980s, and after, the headline ShadowStats Alternate Inflation Index in the September 2022 CPI-U continued to soften, easing to 16.4% year-to-year, from 16.5% in August and 16.8% in July in tandem with falling gasoline prices, previously having jumped to 17.3% in June, from 16.8% in May, versus 16.5% in April and 16.8% in March 2022, on top of the underlying headline CPI-U rebound, up from 16.0% in February, 15.6% in January, 15.1% in December 2021 and 14.9% in November. These members noted that the economic news overall had been fairly limited relative to the May Report projections. The framework also recognises that there will be occasions when inflation will depart from the target as a result of shocks and disturbances. We thank Cass for their permission to graph and to use their numbers in our Commentaries. Comfortable neither with the recent extreme benchmarkings here, nor with the inconsistent, negligible benchmarkings in the closely related Industrial Production series, I continue to review a variety of related numbers and shall report in pending No. That said, strong year-to-year gains in headline Production were against impaired activity in year-ago September 2021 [Federal Reserve Board]. CPI inflation was expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. The 2022 COLA of 5.9 percent increased the average retirement benefit by $92 a month. [D] | Copyright Instituto Nacional de Estatstica, CPI annual rate of change estimated at 9.3% The patterns here have shown a sharp enough fall off in activity to confirm the onset of a new or deepening Recession that began late in 2021, early in 2022 (see the pending discussion in No. Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story 1461]. Table 1. CPI inflation was expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago "John" Williams was born in 1949. That will be reviewed and detailed anew in the pending Commentary. You may disable these by changing your browser settings, but this may affect how the website functions. Find everything you need to know about a specific survey or a statistical program. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. O P E N I N G .. H E A D LI N E S - A sampling of the most recent ECONOMIC, INFLATION, FEDERAL RESERVE (Monetary) and POLITICAL Headlines: SHADOWSTATS GENERAL ASSESSMENT: Economic, Monetary, Inflation and Political circumstances all continue to show intensifying systemic instabilities and sharp, meaningful near-term deterioration, with rapidly mounting risk of extremely negative, albeit inflationary, economic and financial market turmoil. ShadowStats Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) notched lower to 121.6% off an upwardly revised August record high growth level of 123.3% [previously 123.1%] from its Pre-Pandemic Trough, up from a revised 114.6% previously 114.4%] in July. IMPORTANT: Actual Commentary postings always are advised immediately and directly to Subscribers by coincident e-mail, along with a direct link to the posted Commentary and any needed login detail. That suggests the system is about three years shy of full recovery. Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset Results and documentation of surveys and statistical programs, Using new and existing data for official statistics, Surveys and statistical programs Main page, Median after-tax income, economic families and persons not in an economic family, Proportion of people aged 65 years and older, Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population, North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Canada 2022 Version 1.0, Register to our workshops, training and conferences, The Honourable Franois-Philippe Champagne. The inactivity rate has declined a little over recent months but is still higher than immediately before the pandemic. Discover census data on citizenship and immigration; ethnocultural and religious composition of the population; and mobility and migration of Canadians. Twelve-month CPI inflation rose from 7.0% in March to 9.0% in April, close to expectations at the time of the May Report, and triggering the exchange of open letters between the Governor and the Chancellor of the Exchequer that is being published alongside this monetary policy announcement. The University of Michigans October 2022 Consumer Sentiment (October 28th) held shy by 40.7% (-40.7%) of recovering its Pre-Pandemic Peak. Monetary policy is also acting to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations are anchored at the 2% target. Latest Business Video. ET) and the University of Michigans Early November 2022 Consumer Sentiment on November 11th (10:00 a.m. Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to, clientslarge and smallincluding talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. 44: Consistent with the Committees decision at its February 2022 meeting to begin to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases, the 3.2 billion of cash flows associated with the redemption of the July 2022 gilt held by the APF would not be reinvested. As previously posted there (October 27th): the initial Real Third-Quarter 2022 GDP annualized growth of 2.6% was more than totally accounted for by an extreme improvement, a narrowing in the unstable Net Exports Account (the Trade Deficit), shy of which the GDP would have contracted at a headline annualized quarterly pace of 0.6% (-0.6%) [Subsequent to First- and Second-Quarter 2022 respective headline quarterly contractions of 1.6% (-1.6%) and 0.6% (-0.6%). Given the underlying moribund Economy, raising rates further [as being jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. Political corruption is the use of powers by government officials or their network contacts for illegitimate private gain.. Forms of corruption vary, but can include bribery, lobbying, extortion, cronyism, nepotism, parochialism, patronage, influence peddling, graft, and embezzlement.Corruption may facilitate criminal enterprise such as drug trafficking, money Equity indices in the major advanced economies had fallen since the MPCs previous meeting, with large declines in the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 50. CPI inflation was expected to average slightly over 10% at its peak in 2022 Q4. 5: Developments in commodity prices had been mixed since the MPCs previous meeting. The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. The risks to the inflation projection were judged to be skewed to the upside at these points. Such should continue to take a large bite out of inflation-adjusted Real Growth in pending September 2022 Construction Spending, keeping the Real, Inflation-Adjusted series negative month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year [See the earlier October 3rd August Construction Spending section]. The former has been greatly exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, which has also raised significantly the wholesale price of many agricultural commodities. Holding Physical Gold Protects the Purchasing Power of Dollar Assets, Irrespective of Any Near-Term Volatility in, or Manipulation of, Gold Prices, October 2020 Cass Freight Index Turned Positive Year-to-Year, Gaining 2.4% Against an Unusually Sharp, Unseasonable Decline the Year Before Growth in the stock of vacancies had however slowed, from 5.4% in the three months to February to 1.6% in the three months to May. Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago 14: Monthly GDP had fallen by 0.1% in March and by 0.3% in April, the latter weaker than expectations. UK GDP was weaker than expected in April, partly reflecting a further decline in Test and Trace activity. Discussions on the inflation threat and re-accelerating money growth are found in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. COVERAGE/ PENDING DAILY UPDATE POSTINGS OF ECONOMIC NUMBERS and DEVELOPMENTS: Separate from potential economic and financial implications from the eventual, final Election results, pending major economic releases are the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) October 2022 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on November 10th (8:30 a.m. Output in consumer-facing services had risen by 2.2% in April, broadly in line with expectations. Recruitment difficulties have remained elevated and labour demand has remained strong. COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment have helped to stabilize a still-impaired level of economic activity, again well shy of full recovery, yet new Pandemic issues, including new variants and vaccination controversies, continue.
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